Acid deposition in aquatic ecosystems: Setting limits empirically

The problem of acid deposition and its harmful effects on aquatic ecosystems has created a new branch of science that is called upon to provide the knowledge on which legislative controls can be based. However, because of the nature of existing legislation, which requires evidence of cause and effect between industrial emissions and pollution, and because of science's inability to provide this information over the short term, considerable controversy has arisen about whether sufficient information exists to warrant control measures at this time. Among those who advocate controls, there is genuine divergence of opinion about how stringent the controls must be to achieve any desired level of protection.The controversy has led to an impasse between the scientific and political participants, which is reflected in the slow pace of progress toward an effective management strategy. Resolution of the impasse, at least in the short term, may demand that science and politics rely on empirical models rather than explanatory ones. The empirical model, which is the major proposal in this article, integrates all of the major variables and many of the minor ones, and constructs a three-dimensionally curved surface capable of representing the status of any waterbody subjected to the effects of acid deposition. When suitably calibrated—a process involving the integration of knowledge and data from aquatic biology, geochemistry, meteorology, and limnology—it can be used to depict limits to the rate of acid deposition required for any level of environmental protection. Because it can generate a pictorial display of the effects of management decisions and legislative controls, the model might serve as a basis for enhancing the quality of communication among all the scientific and political participants and help to resolve many of their controversies.