Sensitivity analysis of Phast’s atmospheric dispersion model for three toxic materials (nitric oxide, ammonia, chlorine) |
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Authors: | Nishant Pandya Nadine Gabas Eric Marsden |
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Affiliation: | a Université de Toulouse, INPT, UPS, Laboratoire de Génie Chimique, 4, Allée Emile Monso, F-31432 Toulouse, France b CNRS, Laboratoire de Génie Chimique, 4, Allée Emile Monso, BP 84234, F-31432 Toulouse, France c Institut pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle, 6 Allée Emile Monso, BP 34038, 31029 Toulouse, France |
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Abstract: | We present the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis of a widely used model for atmospheric dispersion of toxic gases, in order better to understand the influence of user-adjustable parameters on model outputs. We have studied 60 min continuous release scenarios for three different products (nitric oxide, ammonia and chlorine), chosen to cover a range of physical characteristics and storage conditions. For each product, we have broken down base-case scenarios into a number of sub-scenarios corresponding to different release conditions which determine physical phenomena (flow rate, release angle, release elevation and atmospheric stability class). The use of statistical tools to analyze the results of a large number of model executions allows us to rank model parameters according to their influence on the variability of a number of model outputs (distances and concentrations), on a per-scenario and per-product basis. Analysis of the results allows us to verify our understanding of the modeling of cloud dispersion. |
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Keywords: | Atmospheric dispersion Consequence modeling Toxic materials Sensitivity analysis Phast software |
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