轨道交通枢纽灾害风险等级评估方法研究

轨道交通枢纽灾害发生具有随机性和复杂性特征。为了评价轨道交通枢纽灾害风险，对轨道交通枢纽运营灾害的进行了调研，应用事故树法对轨道交通枢纽进行了灾害识别；基于物元理论，分析了灾害事件影响后果并协同考虑灾害事件的发生概率，建立轨道交通枢纽灾害风险等级划分标准，确定致灾因子的风险等级；采用层次分析法确定致灾因子权重系数，运用加权平均的原则确定典型灾害风险等级，并应用灾害链理论对灾害风险等级进行修正。最后以实例分析的方式证明该评价方法的可行性和客观性。

Study on evaluation method of disaster risk level for rail transit junction

The disaster in rail transit junction has the characteristics of randomness and complexity. In order to evaluate the level of disaster risk, combining with an investigation of Chongqing rail transit system under operation condition, the method of accident tree analysis was applied for disaster identification on rail transit junction. Based on the matter element theory, an analysis on the impact of disasters severity and its probability was carried out. A criteria of disaster risk hierarchy standard was established，and the risk level of hazard formative factors was ascertained. The analytic hierarchy process was applied to determine the weight coefficient of hazard factor, and the final risk level of typical disaster was down after a correction according to the disaster chain theory. Finally, the evaluation method was used in a case study and the results proved its feasibility and objectivity.