| 影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷小途. 影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平评估[J]. 灾害学, 2000, 15(4): 6-12 |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷小途 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所!上海200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重攻关课题!(96 - 90 8- 0 5 - 0 6 - 0 4)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 在文献「１」研究的基础上，探讨了热带气旋频数预测水平的评估方法，定义了三个更适合于评估每年热带气旋预测性能的参数，对影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平进行了评估，并与“九五”攻关前的业务预测性进行了比较。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 频数 短期天气预报 评估 上海 准确性 |
Accuracy Evaluation of Shanghai tropical cyclone frequency forecast |
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| LEI Xiao tu. Accuracy Evaluation of Shanghai tropical cyclone frequency forecast[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2000, 15(4): 6-12 |
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| Authors: | LEI Xiao tu |
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| Abstract: | Based on paper 1, the assessment methods of tropical frequency (TCF) forecast are discussed. Three parameters to evaluate the accuracy TCF forecast e a ch yearare defined. The factors affecting the accuracy of Shanghai tropical cy c lone frequencyforecast are evaluated and the Shanghai TCF forecast accuracy by the method established inthe "ninth-five-year plan" is compared with that of the method used before the"ninth-five-year plan". |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone frequency short term climate forecast accuracy eva luation Shanghai |
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