基于事故树方法与三角模糊理论耦合的城市火灾风险分析

以消防安全工程学与系统安全工程理论为基础,结合我国城市发展特征及消防安全管理状况,建立城市区域火灾风险事故树;应用模糊重要度法对事故树基本事件进行排序,把导致火灾的因素进行模糊分级。从模糊概率排序以及分级可以看出,城市区域布局、移动消防力量以及人员素质是制约火灾风险的3个主要因素,并与历年来我国城市火灾发生的主要原因相吻合。笔者认为,要从根本上控制城市火灾风险,严格管理3个主要因素对于我国的城市消防安全管理有着非常积极的意义。

Urban Fire Risk Analysis Based on Fault Tree Method and Tri-fuzzy Theory

Based on the theory of fire safety engineering and systematic safety engineering,a fault tree for urban fire risk was firstly set up with consideration on the characteristics of urban development and fire safety management in China. Then,basic events were arranged in order and fire factors were graded by employing fuzzy importance method. It indicates that the urban regional layout,mobile fire control forces and personnel quality are the three main factors affecting fire risk,which is in accord with the recent fire actuality in China. It is considered that,to radically control urban fire risk,strict management on the three factors is very helpful to the urban fire safety management of China.