互助资金政策对贫困村劳动力流动的影响--基于5省10县准实验研究的DID分析

促进贫困地区农村劳动力向外流动是提高农民收入、缩小城乡差距的关键。在农村劳动力尤其是贫困劳动力外流增速放缓的背景下,文章从信贷约束缓解的视角出发,基于5省10县互助资金监测的准实验研究项目,借助双重差分(DID)模型,利用1059个微观农户的三期面板数据,从家庭层面考察了互助资金政策对贫困村劳动力流动的影响,并从缓解流动性约束、资本替代劳动和提供隐性担保三个角度对作用机制进行了分析和检验。研究结果表明:①互助资金政策的实施对贫困村劳动力外流具有显著的促进作用。安慰剂检验和稳健性检验进一步加强了研究结论的可靠性。②缓解农户的流动性约束是互助资金促进贫困村劳动力外流的路径之一,通过向农户提供借款,使农户尤其是贫困农户获得了满足迁移成本的金融资源,从而促进了向外流动。③资本替代劳动的机制作用并不明显,这可能与互助资金借款额度有限有关,无法满足农户机械化的资本需求。④为农户家庭面临的收入风险提供隐性担保也是互助资金促进贫困村劳动力外流的路径之一,通过为农户提供资金融通渠道,确保农户即使在外流失败的情况下能够通过向互助资金借贷平滑消费和缓解风险冲击。研究结论为探索农村金融供给能否成为进一步促进剩余贫困劳动力转移的契机提供了有理论价值和可操作的视角,未来应继续坚持农村金融改革的步伐,加快金融产品和金融工具创新,不断提高贫困农户的信贷可得性和可持续性收益。

Influence of mutual fund policy on labor mobility in poor villages:a DID analysis based on quasi-experimental research from 10 counties in 5 provinces

Promoting the outward mobility of rural labor is the key to raising farmers′income and narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas.In the context of the slowing down of the outflow of rural labor,especially poor labor,this paper,from the perspective of credit constraint alleviation,based on the quasi-experimental research project of mutual fund monitored from 10 counties in 5 provinces,and with the help of the DID model and the three-round panel data of 1,059 micro households,examined the impact of mutual fund policy on labor mobility in poor villages at the household level.Moreover,this paper analyzed and tested the mechanism from three aspects:easing liquidity constraints,replacing labor with capital and providing implicit guarantee.The results showed that:①First,the implementation of mutual fund project had a significant promoting effect on the outflow of labor in poor villages.The placebo test and robustness test further strengthened the reliability of the conclusion.②Second,alleviating the liquidity constraints of farmers was one of the paths of mutual fund to the promotion of labor outflow in poor villages.Providing loans could enable farmers,especially poor farmers,to obtain financial resources to meet the migration costs,and thus promoting outward flow.③Third,the mechanism of capital replacing labor was not obvious,which was likely to be related to the limited amount of mutual fund loans and could not meet the farmers′mechanization capital needs.④Fourth,providing an implicit guarantee for households facing income risk was also one of the paths of mutual fund to the promotion of labor outflow in poor villages.Providing financing channels for farmers could ensure that they could smooth consumption and mitigate risk shocks through borrowing even if the outflow failed.The conclusions provide a theoretical and operational perspective for exploring whether the rural financial supply could become an opportunity to further promote the transfer of poor labor.In the future,we should continue to adhere to the pace of rural financial reform,accelerate the innovation of financial products and financial instruments,and constantly improve the credit availability and the sustainable income of poor farmers.