基于三角随机模拟和ArcGIS的河流水环境健康风险评价模型

基于河流水环境系统中随机性、模糊性等多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将三角模糊数与随机模拟方法相耦合,构建了三角随机模拟模型,并将其应用到湘江(长沙段)的健康风险评价中。通过将各参数浓度进行三角模糊化和随机模拟,结果表明,各断面污染物造成的健康风险的变化趋势,总体沿湘江上游至下游逐步降低,表现为昭山 > 猴子石 > 五一桥 > 橘子洲 > 乔口 > 三汊矶,且昭山、三汊矶断面和乔口断面均有恶化趋势。相对于常规的确定性方法,本模型能够得出评价区域健康风险的可能值区间及其相应的概率水平等定量信息,更加客观、全面地表征评价区域的风险状态及其空间分布差异,为决策者提供更多有用的信息。

Assessment model of water environmental health risk based on stochastic simulation-triangular fuzzy numbers and ArcGIS

Based on the characteristics of various uncertainties that coexist or cross-exist in water environmental systems, the stochastic simulation-triangular fuzzy numbers model was established by connecting the triangular fuzzy numbers theory with the stochastic simulation method.This model was introduced to the field of health risk assessment for the Xiangjiang River (Changsha Section).The parameter's concentrations were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers and then stochastically simulated.The results showed that the health risks caused by pollutants of each section gradually decreased overall along the Xiangjiang River upstream to downstream.They decreased in the following order:Zhao Mountain > Houzishi > Wuyi Bridge > Orange Island > Qiaokou > Sanchaji.Compared to the deterministic method, both the ranges of possible values and their probabilities of health risk can be calculated conveniently and quickly using this model.Therefore, this model can give a better characterization of the actual risk status and spatial distribution difference objectively and accurately, and also provide the decision maker more complex information.