大尺度生态干扰风险评估技术方法及应用研究

为实现大尺度生态干扰高风险区域的快速、有效识别，从生态易损性、干扰易达性和资源易引性三个方面选取了9个指标，构建了生态干扰风险评估指标体系和评估模型，形成了完整的大尺度生态干扰评估技术与方法.利用该技术方法，本文评估分析了全国国土空间生态干扰风险状况、空间分布格局及其成因，并结合2017~2019年全国自然保护区人类活动监测数据和《全国主体功能区规划》中生态脆弱性评价结果对生态干扰风险评估结果进行了精度分析.结果显示：超过90%的自然保护区人类活动都集中在评估得到的中高风险区域；全国生态干扰风险主要以中风险为主、低风险次之、再次是较低风险、较高和高风险区域面积最少；其中较高和高风险区域主要分布在我国中西部和东北部的秦岭、祁连山、三江源和内蒙古草原等区域，生态干扰风险空间分布格局与生态系统结构与功能状况、地形与交通条件、资源潜力等因素具有较强相关性.

Research on the method and application of large-scale ecological disturbance risk assessment

To realize the rapid and effective identification of high risk areas of large-scale ecological disturbance, This research selected 9 indicators from three aspects of "ecological vulnerability (EV)", "accessibility to disturbance (AD)" and "easy-attractiveness of resources (RE)", and constructed the index system and evaluation model of ecological disturbance risk assessment, forming a complete large-scale ecological disturbance assessment technology and method. Using this technology and method, the risk status of the national land space ecological disturbance, the spatial distribution pattern and its causes were evaluated and analyzed, and the 2017~2019 national nature reserves human activity monitoring data and ecological vulnerability result in the National Planning for Major Function Zones were used to analyze the accuracy of the ecological disturbance risk assessment results. The results showed that more than 90% of human activities in nature reserves were concentrated in the medium and high risk areas, The national ecological disturbance risk was mainly intermediate, followed by low and relatively low, and high and relatively high areas were the least. The high and relatively high risk areas were mainly distributed in the west-central and northeast regions such as the Qinling Mountains, Qilian Mountains, Sanjiangyuan, and Inner Mongolia grasslands. The spatial distribution characteristics of ecological disturbance risk had a strong correlation with factors such as the structure and function of the ecosystem, topography, traffic conditions, and resource potential.