Preferred policies when there is a concern for probability of adoption |
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Authors: | Richard Zeckhauser |
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Institution: | John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA |
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Abstract: | A theory of effective policy choice is developed that recognizes that the probability that a policy is adopted depends on who gains from it, who loses, and by how much. Ten pieces of recent environmental legislation are assessed to see how mechanisms such as coupling with other legislation, phased implementation, and the manipulation of uncertainty can spread benefits and costs. Several optimizing models are presented that explicitly incorporate the probability of adoption. |
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