基于熵权和模糊综合评价的航空公司安全风险研究

针对航空公司安全风险诸多影响因素的模糊性,引入模糊综合评价理论对航空公司安全风险进行评价,从机组、飞机、环境和管理4个方面提出了航空公司安全风险评价的指标体系,采用熵权和层次分析法确定评价指标的拟合权重,建立了航空公司安全风险评价的模糊综合评价模型。以该模型对国内某航空公司安全风险状况进行评价。分析认为,该航空公司的安全风险介于高风险与较高风险之间,急需加强安全防范,尤其应该加强飞行机组和飞机的安全管理。

Airline safety risk assessment based on the entropy weight and fuzzy theory

The paper is to present our research results on the airline safety risk assessment based on the entropy weight and fuzzy theory.As is known,it is the premise to take effective measures to ensure flight safety of the airlines by introducing more effective flight-security evaluation methods.To study the fuzzy factors affecting the flight safety of airlines,it is necessary to improve the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.It is for this urgent need,we have established an indicator system of the flight safety risk evaluation method on the basis of the following four factors: the flight crew,the aircraft state in situ,the environment and the flight management.The comprehensive weight of evaluation index system has to be determined by entropy method and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).In this way,we can manage to solve the problem of the casualness and subjectivity of the weight decision in a traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The expert-scoring evaluation can also be used to evaluate the index layer of the security of the airlines.With the above-said method in mind,the membership grades of the index layer can be obtained,and in turn,we can establish the fuzzy evaluation matrix of each indicator in each index layer.And,for practical purpose,we have also set up a model of the flight safety risk evaluation for domestic airlines via fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Thus,the flight safety of a domestic airline can be assessed under this model.And,finally,it can be concluded that the flight safety level of this airline is between highrisk and higher-risk,and,for this said reason,it is urgent to strengthen the security precautions especially the safety management of its crew and aircraft.In so doing,an overall security risk level of the airlines can be obtained with our method and an integrated evaluation method can be established to evaluate the safety risks of the airlines.Hence,our new model can provide a reference to the comprehensive evaluation for the airline safety to work out security risks measure and preventive measure.