古蔺河流域径流特性分析与研究

为能充分掌握宜宾市古蔺河流域径流量的演变规律,基于1960—2009年古蔺河流域径流量统计资料,采用线性趋势法、滑动平均法、改进的Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势法分析古蔺河径流量的年季变化趋势,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检验法、改进的Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检验法、滑动t检验法对古蔺河径流量的年季突变特征进行综合分析。结果表明:古蔺河径流量序列的年季变化趋势均不显著,年均径流量总体呈上升趋势;春、夏两季呈上升趋势,秋、冬两季呈下降趋势;古蔺河年季径流时间序列均有突变出现,年均径流量的突变点发生在1985年附近;春季径流量的突变点发生在1982年;夏季径流量的突变点发生在1988,2001年;秋季径流量的突变点发生在1983,1993年;冬季径流量的突变点发生在2004年。

ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF RUNOFF IN GULIN RIVER BASIN

In order to overall grasp the,evolution law of runoff in Gulin River Basin in Yibin,on the basis of the statistical data of runoff from 1960 to 2009 of Gulin River Basin,least square linear fitting method,moving-average method and the modified Mann-Kendall (M-K) test were adopted to analyze the annual and seasonal runoff change trend.It also gave a comprehensive test about the mutation characteristics of runoff by using Mann-Kendall jump test,the modified Mann-Kendall (M-K) jump test and moving t-test technique.The results showed that:The variation trend of average annual and seasonal runoff sequences were not significant.The average annual runoff had an increasing trend in general,the upward trend in runoff in spring and summer,while the downward trend in autumn and winter.The mutation occurred in the average annual and seasonal runoff sequences;the mutation point of average annual runoff appeared in 1985;the mutation point of spring runoff appeared in 1982;the mutation point of summer runoff appeared in 1988,2001;the mutation point of autumn runoff appeared in 1983 and 1993;the mutation point of winter runoff appeared in 2004.