Evaluation of a photochemical grid model using estimates of concentration probability density functions |
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| Institution: | 1. MS 5C3, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA;2. North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27709, USA;1. Liverpool John Moores University, School of Sport and Exercise Sciences, UK;2. Liverpool John Moores University, School of Sport Studies, Leisure and Nutrition, UK;1. School of Biotechnology, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar, India;2. IMGENEX India Pvt. Ltd., Bhubaneswar, India;3. Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;4. School of Chemical Technology, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar, India;1. Liverpool John Moores University, School of Sport Studies, Leisure and Nutrition, UK;2. University of Central Lancashire, School of Psychology, UK;3. Leeds Beckett University, School of Sport, UK;4. Leeds Trinity University, School of Social and Health Science, UK;5. Edge Hill University, Sport and Exercise Science, UK;6. Queensland University of Technology, Exercise and Nutrition Sciences, Australia;1. Center for Pulmonary Diseases, National Hospital Organization Tokyo National Hospital;2. Clinical Research Center, National Hospital Organization Tokyo National Hospital;3. Asthma Allergy and Rheumatology Center, National Hospital Organization Tokyo National Hospital;4. Department of Basic Mycobacteriology, Graduate School of Biomedical Science, Nagasaki University |
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| Abstract: | A method for evaluating photochemical grid models based on the estimation of the probability density function (PDF) of the variations in ozone concentrations is described and demonstrated. It is assumed that the ozone concentration PDF is determined from 100 Monte Carlo uncertainty runs based on uncertainties in photochemical grid model input variables. The exercise involves the Urban Airshed Model with Variable grid (UAM-V) as applied to the July 1995 Ozone Transport Assessment Group episode in the eastern US. The focus is on the distribution of model residuals (observed concentration minus model-predicted ensemble mean concentration) for 66 ozone monitors on the OTAG domain. It is concluded that the distribution of observed model residuals is within the 95% range of expected uncertainty, suggesting that the model is performing adequately. |
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