德州市耕地资源态势演变的驱动力分析

耕地资源数量与质量动态变化是农区经济与社会的可持续发展的决定性因素,特别是随着农业生态环境的不断恶化,各种不定因素导致耕地数量不断减少,保护和利用好耕地资源显得尤为重要。以地处黄河下游的德州市为背景,分析了其耕地资源现状特点、耕地资源开发利用中存在的问题,采用灰色关联分析方法,找出区域耕地资源态势演变的驱动因素,并对耕地资源供需趋势和保证程度做出预测。

Analysis of Driving Force of Situation Evolution about Cultivated Land Resources of Dezhou

The dynamic change in quantity and quality of cultivated land resource was the decisive factor of the sustainable development of the economy and society in rural area.Especially,with the continual deterioration of the agricultural ecological environment,various sorts of unpredictable factors led to the decrease in the quantity of the cultivated land,therefore,it was very important to protect and make good use of the cultivated land.Set on Dezhou City located on the backward position of the Yellow River,and based on the analysis of the characters of its cultivated land resource and the existing problems in the exploitation of it,this paper found out the driving factor of the situation evolution about the regional cultivated land resource by adopting the Grey Relational Analysis,and predicted the trend of the supply and demand of the cultivated land and the extent of the guarantee.