贸易开放、劳动力转移和就业

长久以来主流国际贸易模型中充分就业的假设使经济学界忽略了对贸易开放如何影响就业的分析,而哈里斯-托达罗模型则为此提供了一个可供扩展的框架.将哈里斯-托达罗模型扩展到存在贸易开放的情况后,本文发现如果一国的比较优势为制造品,贸易开放将会减少就业,这是因为制造品价格的提高会吸引更多的劳动力从农业向制造业转移,而制造业部门劳动力市场刚性的存在则阻碍了劳动需求的增加.为了研究我国改革开放以来贸易开放对就业的影响机制,并且考虑到就业的持续性,本文利用我国省际面板动态数据进行实证研究,并使用国有企业和政府部门劳动力占比度量我国劳动力市场刚性程度.实证研究结果发现当不考虑劳动市场刚性时,由于我国的比较优势是劳动密集型产品,贸易开放能增加就业;而当劳动力市场刚性较大时,劳动力转移过程反而促使贸易开放减少我国的就业,恰好验证了本文的理论分析结果.该文的政策含义则意味着政府应努力降低劳动力市场刚性以促使贸易开放增加就业.

Trade Opening, Labor Migration and Employment

The mainstream international trade model has hold the assumption of full employment for long time, so that economists has ignored analyzing the impact of trade opening on employment, but Harris-Todaro model provides a framework for expansion. In this paper, we extended Harris-Todaro mode to the ease of trade opening, and found that if one country' s comparative advantage was manufacture, trade opening would reduce employment, that's because the increasing of manufactured goods' price would attract more labor migration from agriculture to manufacturing, but the existence of lowest real wage rigidity in manufacture hindered the increasing of labor demand. In order to study the influence mechanism of trade on employment after China's reform and opening up, and taking into account the continuity of employment, we use China's dynamic inter-provincial panel data to do empirical research and use the labor share of stated-owned enterprises and government departments to measure the extent of labor market rigidity. We find when do not consider the labor market rigidity, due to China's comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, trade opening can increase employment; when labor market rigidity is relative high, the labor transfer process would make trade opening reduce employment, which just validate the theoretical analysis in this paper. The policy imphcation of this paper is that government should strive to reduce the degree of labor market rigidity to promote trade opening increase employment.