化工园区应急管理能力评估研究

为了研究化工园区应急管理能力的影响指标，从控制事故致因角度出发，得到6个化工园区应急管理能力一级影响指标和32个二级影响指标。为了解决传统专家打分法和层次分析法存在的随意性大、计算结果不可预测的问题，通过考虑专家自然属性权重和采用模糊层次分析法对所得影响指标的权重进行研究，并运用模糊综合评价方法对某化学工业园区的应急管理能力进行评估。结果表明:采用的计算方法可快速计算各影响指标权重；一级影响因素中，人员组织建设和预案及制度建设最为重要，应急基础保障、应急技术支持和指挥协调建设其次，事后处置重要性最低；该化工园区的应急管理能力“较好”。研究成果可为管理者认识化工园区应急管理水平，有序开展化工园区应急管理能力建设提供参考。

Research on evaluation of emergency management capability for chemical industrial park

In order to study the influence indexes of emergency management capability for chemical industrial park, from the perspective of controlling the accident causes, 6 first level influence indexes and 32 second level influence indexes of emergency management capability for chemical industrial park were obtained. To solve the problems of large randomness and unpredictable calculation results existing in the traditional expert scoring method and AHP analysis, the weights of the influence indexes were studied through considering the natural attribute weight of expert and using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), then the emergency management capability of a certain chemical industrial park was evaluated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that the adopted calculation method could quickly calculate the weight of each influence index. In the first level influence indexes, the construction of personnel organization and the construction of plan and regulations were the most important, followed by the emergency basic support, the emergency technical support and the construction of command coordination, and the importance of post-accident disposal was the lowest. The emergency management capability of the given chemical industrial park was "better". The results can provide reference for the managers of chemical industrial parks to understand the level of emergency management capability and carry out the capability construction orderly.