基于情景要素的电网大面积停电事件情景序列构建方法研究

为了进一步做好电网大面积停电事件应对工作，针对电网大面积停电事件外部致因条件与事件内部演化规律不清的问题，采用“情景-构建”方法梳理事件情景要素，并在历史事故案例数据以及大量应急演练数据的基础上，综合运用数据挖掘方法，建立相关事件情景的逻辑与时间序列，为电网大面积停电事件的应急响应与决策指挥等工作提供科学、合理的理论支持，相关研究思路与方法也可为电力企业其它类型突发事件的应急管理工作提供参考。

Study on scenario sequence construction method of large area blackout event in power grid based on scenario elements

In order to further improve the response work of large area blackout event in power grid, aiming at the problems that the external causes conditions and the internal evolution rules of large area blackout event in power grid are not clear, the scenario elements of the event were analyzed by using the scenario construction method, and the logic and time sequences of the related event scenario were established by comprehensively using various data mining methods based on the historical data of accident cases and a large number of emergency exercise data. It provides scientific and reasonable theoretical support for the emergency response, decision-making and command of large area blackout event in power grid, and the research ideas and methods can also provide a reference for the emergency management of other types of emergencies in electric power enterprises.