基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法

为了评价地铁系统中具有显著随机性的潜在风险因素对地铁火灾安全的影响水平，引入D-S证据理论，提出1种基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法。通过查阅地铁建筑相关资料，建立包括“人、机、管、环”4大方面的地铁火灾安全评价指标体系；在此基础上，合理运用信任函数与似然函数，计算评价因素的安全上下界极限，将一般评价中遇到的不确定结果进行可靠的数值转换，从而量化评价结果；采用证据融合算法，综合考虑不同专家给出的多组检查结果在地铁火灾安全评价中的信度，提高最终评分的可靠程度。实例分析表明:基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法，能够较好地量化与融合不确定性风险因素。

Safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory

In order to evaluate the effect of potential risk factors with obvious randomness in subway system on the subway fire safety, a safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory was put forward by introducing into the D-S evidence theory. An index system for safety evaluation of subway fire was established by consulting the related documents of subway buildings, which includes four aspects, i.e., man, machine, management and environment. On this basis, the upper and lower safety limits of the evaluation factors were calculated by using the belief function and the likelihood function reasonably. The reliable numerical conversion was conducted on the uncertain results in the general evaluation, so as to quantify the evaluation results. The reliability degree of the final score was improved by using the evidence fusion algorithm and comprehensively considering the reliability of multiple groups of test results by various experts in safety evaluation of subway fire. The case analysis showed that the safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory can better quantify and fuse the uncertain risk factors.