基于突变理论的采空塌陷区输气管道危险性评价研究

为了减少采空塌陷区输气管道危险性评价中对主观判断的依赖，提出以突变理论为基础的危险性评价模型。首先，从采矿因素、岩体物理力学参数、环境与地质因素和埋地管道因素等4个方面分析采空塌陷区输气管道危险性影响因素；其次，建立采空塌陷区输气管道危险性指标体系；然后，对指标体系中的底层指标进行无量纲化和归一化处理；最后，计算得到输气管道危险性突变数值，进而实现对采空塌陷区输气管道危险性等级的综合评判。将以上评价模型进行实例应用，应用结果表明，基于突变理论的采空塌陷区输气管道综合评价模型可以用于采空塌陷区输气管道的危险性评价。

Study on hazard assessment of natural gas pipeline in mining subsidence area based on catastrophe theory

To reduce the dependence on subjective judgment in the hazard assessment on natural gas pipeline in the mining subsidence area, a hazard assessment model based on the catastrophe theory was put forward. Firstly, the influencing factors for the hazards of natural gas pipeline in mining subsidence area were analyzed from four aspects, including the mining factor, the physical and mechanical parameters of rock mass, the environmental and geological factors, and the factor of buried pipeline. Secondly, an index system for the hazards of natural gas pipeline in mining subsidence area was established, then the dimensionless and normalized processing were conducted on the bottom indexes of the index system. Finally, the catastrophe values for the hazards of natural gas pipeline were calculated, thus the comprehensive assessment on the hazard grade of natural gas pipeline in mining subsidence area was realized. The assessment model was applied in a practical example, and the results showed that the comprehensive assessment model based on catastrophe theory can be applied in the hazard assessment of natural gas pipeline in mining subsidence area.