第三方挖掘作用下管道可靠性评估研究

为研究第三方损坏中挖掘作用对管道可靠性的定量影响，阐述了第三方挖掘作用下管道失效模式与失效机理，确定了管道第三方挖掘作用下的2个极限状态:穿孔失效和凹陷—划伤失效，提出了1种综合考虑管道运行及管理条件，建立了管道第三方挖掘极限状态方程求解其失效概率的模型。以某长输天然气管道为例，基于蒙特卡洛模拟计算了研究管段的失效概率值，并进行了参数的敏感性分析。结果表明，该方法能够定量描述第三方挖掘对管道可靠性的影响程度，评估结果便于管理者制定相应的维修维护策略。

Study on reliability evaluation of pipeline under the effect of third-party excava-tion

To study the quantitative effect of excavation in third-party damage to pipeline reliability, based on expounding the failure mode and failure mechanism of pipeline under the effect of third-party excavation, two limit states of pipeline under the effect of third-party excavation were determined, including the punching failure and indentation-scratch failure. Comprehensively considering the operating and management conditions of pipeline, a model for solving the failure probability was put forward by establishing the limit state equations of pipeline under the effect of third-party excavation. Taking a long-distance natural gas pipeline as example, the value of failure probability for the selected pipeline section was calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation, and the sensitivity analysis on parameters was performed. The results showed that the method can quantitatively describe the effect of third-party excavation to pipeline reliability, and the evaluation results are convenient for managers to formulate the corresponding repair and maintenance strategies.