| 天津市风暴潮经济损失评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 房浩,李善峰,叶晓滨.天津市风暴潮经济损失评估[J].海洋环境科学,2007,26(3):271-274. |
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| 作者姓名： | 房浩 李善峰 叶晓滨 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学,水资源与环境学院,北京,100083;中国地质大学,工程技术学院,北京,100083;中国地质环境监测院,北京,100081;中国地质环境监测院,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局地质调查项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了风暴潮对工业、农业等的危害,统计了天津市100多a来较大的风暴潮灾害.并利用"最小二乘法"的思想,根据历次风暴潮最高潮位、增水强度及经济损失等资料,建立了评估风暴潮直接经济损失的数学模型y=123.9-47.25x 4.78x2.依据此模型,估算得在不考虑物价因素的情况下,天津市风暴潮灾害造成的直接经济损失总计达14.34亿元.
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴潮 最高潮位 经济损失 评估 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6336（2007）03-0271-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-242007-03-09 |
The evaluation on economic loss caused by storm tides in Tianjin |
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| FANG Hao,LI Shan-feng,YE Xiao-bin.The evaluation on economic loss caused by storm tides in Tianjin[J].Marine Environmental Science,2007,26(3):271-274. |
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| Authors: | FANG Hao LI Shan-feng YE Xiao-bin |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. College of Engineering Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 3. China Institute of Geo-nvironment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the harm of the storm tides to the industry and agriculture was analyzed.The statistics of the storm tides were done and the times were more in the past than one hundred years in Tianjin.According the highest tide level,the increased water level,economic loss and so on,the theory of "least square method" was used to establish the mathematical model(y=123.09-47.825x 4.678x2) to evaluate the economic loss caused directly by the storm tides.Under the help of the model,the direct economic loss because of the storm tides was calculated without the regard to the price,and it equaled to 1.4334 billion yuan. |
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| Keywords: | storm tide the highest tide level economic loss evaluation |
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