Simulation of the tropospheric distribution of carbon monoxide during the 1984 MAPS experiment

A global, three-dimensional tropospheric chemistry model was used to perform simulations of the tropospheric distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) coinciding with NASA's Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) experiment which took place during 5–13 October 1984. Archived meteorological data for September and October, 1984, were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and used to drive the offline chemical transport model simulations. Base-case CO emissions were generated by applying emission factors to compiled inventories for related or co-emitted trace species. Simulation results from September and October have been compared with a recent re-release of the 1984 MAPS data and with in situ correlative data taken during the MAPS mission. Because of unrealistically large spatial variability in N₂O mixing ratios measured concurrently by MAPS, model results were also compared with an adjusted CO data set generated by assuming that errors in N₂O measured mixing ratios were correlated with errors in the MAPS CO data. These comparisons, in conjunction with simulations probing model sensitivities, led to the conclusion that biomass burning CO emissions from central and southern Africa may have been larger during September and October, 1984, than our initial best estimate based on the CO₂ emissions data of Hao et al. (1990. Fire in the Tropical Biota; Ecosystem Processes and Global Challenges. Springer, Berlin, pp. 440–462; 1994. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 8, 495–503). This result is in disagreement with recent estimates of biomass burning emissions from Africa (Scholes et al., 1996, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 23677–23682) which are smaller than previously thought for emissions from this region. Although unknown model deficiencies cannot be conclusively ruled out, model sensitivity studies indicate that increased CO emissions from central and southern Africa offer the best explanation for reducing observed differences between model results and MAPS data for this time period. Our results, in combination with a disparity in recent CO emission estimates from this region (Scholes et al., 1996; Hao et al., 1996, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 23577–23584), and in light of recent indications of highly variable biomass burning activities from the tropical western Pacific (Folkins et al., 1997, Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 13291–13299), seem to suggest that biomass burning emissions exhibit significant year-to-year variability. This large variability of emissions sources makes the accurate simulation of specific time periods very difficult and suggests that biomass burning trace species inventories may have to be developed specifically for each simulated time period, employing satellite-derived information on fire coverage and flame intensity.