基于工业总产值发展目标的城市生态承载力情景分析--以佛山市为例

本文以佛山市为例，在分析该市社会经济发展与资源，环境因素之间相关关系的基础上，以其产业发展规划中的工业总产值发展目标为基准和情景平台，通过单一目标，多因素，多途径下的情景分析，来模拟工业经济高速发展所可能出现的城市人口变化，对资源的要求，污染物排放量变化，评价城市发展对城市生态承载力的要求及其满足程度，找出制约当地经济发展的生态承载力限值因子，并根据分析结果对城市发展模式提出了建设性意见。

SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF CARRYING CAPACITY OF URBAN ECOSYSTEM BASED ON DEVELOPING AIMS OF INDUSTRIAL GROSS OUTPUTS--A Case Stydy of Foshan City,China

This paper takes Foshan city for example to explore the research method of ecological carrying capacity. On the basies of a deep study about the relations between the development of economy and natural factors, a scene analysis aimed at the future gross output value of industry has been carried out to model the trends of urban population, resources demand and environmental impact. And then, an assessment on ecological carrying capacity has been fulfilled,and some limited factors have been found out. Finally, a few proposals for urban developing patterns have been put out.