HSE管理中的风险分析方法——以中油国际委内瑞拉公司HSE管理经验为例

HSE管理的出发点应是预防为主。因此尽早识别风险、评估可能的风险是HSE管理的关键。风险分析最重要的是要承认：石油勘探开发活动不可能绝对安全，风险总是客观存在的。风险分析就是尽早识别、分析和评估可能的风险所在、大小和频率。风险管理就是在风险分析的基础上，采取有针对性地措施将风险消减到可接受的水平。本文在总结近年国内外HSE管理中风险分析方法的基础上，结合CNPC在委内瑞拉运行石油项目的经验，提出了一套风险分析的定性和定量方法，包括系统风险分析、节点风险分析、概率统计分析等。由于大力推广和应用这些方法，使CNPC在委内瑞拉运行石油项目9年来没有发生任何HSE大事故，被委内瑞拉国家石油公司誉为“国际石油投资者HSE工作的典范”。

The method of risk analysis for HSE management

The essential idea of HSE management is prevention. So the early identification and early evaluation of risks are the key points of HSE Management. The most important concept of Risk Analysis is that we must realize that there is no absolutely safety during the activities of petroleum exploration and exploitation. Risks do exist. Risk Analysis is to identify, to analyze and to evaluate the existence, degree and frequency of potential risks as early as possible. Risk Management is based on the risk analysis and is to take pertinent method to reduce risks to an acceptable level. This thesis is based on the summarization of the method of Risk Analysis of HSE Management both domestically and abroad in recent years. Combining with the experiences we accumulated in the operation of petroleum projects in Venezuela in all these years, we brought forward a series of methodology about quantitative risk analysis and qualitative risk analysis, including the system risk analysis, node risk analysis and statistics risk analysis etc.. Due to the well popularization and implementation of these risk analysis methods, CNPC has achieved the good performance record with no any serious HSE accident in the operation of petroleum projects in Venezuela in 9 years.