农业面源污染形成机制:理论与实证

在对我国农业面源污染核算及其时空演变特征分析的基础上,构建农业面源污染形成机制分析框架,并利用省际面板数据进行实证分析。主要研究结论如下:①1990-2006年我国农业面源污染对生态环境的压力呈现增加的趋势,主要分布在人口众多、农业集约化程度较高的地区。②农业面源污染形成的一般机制是:经济发展导致农产品需求结构、农业结构的变动等都会对农业面源污染产生的环境因子产生影响,进而导致农业面源污染产生量的差异;对农产品消费数量的增多和对耕地的消耗增大,农业生态系统面临更大的生产集约程度,在很大程度上加大了农业面源污染;经济发展同时也导致公众对高质量环境的需求增多,环保意识也大大提高,为农业面源污染管理政策提供了有效执行土壤,另外,经济增长也为加大环境投资和先进技术的应用提供基础,可能减少农业生产对环境的压力;③实证研究表明,产业结构的演化、技术进步、环境管理制度等方面是影响农业面源污染的重要因素,应是农业面源污染控制和管理政策创新的重点。

Forming Mechanism of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution:A Theoretical and Empirical Study

This article first analyzed evolution characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution,then constructed an analytical framework of economic development to agricultural non-point source pollution, and at last used the panel data to make an empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: ①The pressure of agricultural non-point source pollution on economic development rised in 1990-2006. Farmland fertilizer pollution and livestock and poultry pollution were the main causes.Agricultural non-point source pollution was mainly distributed in areas of larger population and higher agriculture intensification. ②The forming mechanism of agricultural non-point source pollution was that economic development caused the change of demand structure for agricultural products as well as the agricultural structure change, which had an influence on environmental factors caused by agricultural non-point source pollution and led to differences of agricultural non-point source pollution. Increase of agricultural products consumption and arable land consumption in agro-ecological systems increase the agricultural surface source pollution to a great extent. The economic development causes the public to increase demands for high quality environment. In addition, economic growth also provides the basis for increased environmental investment and the application of advanced technology, and possibly reduces the pressure on the environment of agricultural production. ③The evolution of industrial structure, the improvement of technological level, the corresponding changes in institutional arrangements are primary reasons for agricultural non-point source pollution,and they should be the key points in the control of agricultural non-point source pollution.