Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates |
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Authors: | Jing Cao Chong Z He Timothy D McCoy |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, USA;(2) Department of Statistics, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO, USA;(3) Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, Lincoln, NE, USA |
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Abstract: | The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity
allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics
(2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular
visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies
are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this
paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the
Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally
the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set. |
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Keywords: | Bird nest survival Age-specific survival rate Bayesian estimation Hierarchical model Noninformative prior |
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