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Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates
Authors:Jing Cao  Chong Z He  Timothy D McCoy
Institution:(1) Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, USA;(2) Department of Statistics, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO, USA;(3) Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, Lincoln, NE, USA
Abstract:The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics (2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set.
Keywords:Bird nest survival  Age-specific survival rate  Bayesian estimation  Hierarchical model  Noninformative prior
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