基于DEA对抗交叉评价模型的化工园区脆弱性评价

化工园区的脆弱性是评估园区安全现状的重要指标，采用DEA对抗交叉评价方法对某省5个化工园区的脆弱性进行了评价研究。首先从园区固有危险性、园区承灾体脆弱性以及事故后果损失程度3个方面构建了化工园区脆弱性评估指标体系，通过DEA对抗交叉评价模型得出的效率值对园区事故成灾效率进行了评估，成灾效率越大说明脆弱性越大，反之，脆弱性越小；最后，探讨了5个化工园区脆弱性等级，对其进行了优劣排序，分析了园区脆弱性的影响因素；可为化工园区的管理者提供理论支持。

Assessment on vulnerability of chemical industrial park based on DEA aggressive-cross-evaluation model

The vulnerability of chemical industrial park is an important index for evaluating the present situation of safety. The DEA aggressive-cross-evaluation method was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of five chemical industry parks in some province. Firstly, an index system of vulnerability assessment for chemical industrial park was constructed from three aspects, including the inherent danger of chemical industry park, the vulnerability of hazard-affected body and accident consequence losses. Then, the efficiency of accident causing disaster in chemical industrial park was evaluated by efficiency value obtained from DEA aggressive-cross-evaluation model. The greater the efficiency of causing disaster, the greater the vulnerability, conversely, the smaller the vulnerability. Finally, the vulnerability levels of five chemical industrial parks were discussed, the sorting was conducted, and the influence factors of vulnerability were analyzed. It can provide theoretical support for managers of chemical industrial park.