毒气泄漏扩散风险的参数不确定性分析

有毒气体泄漏扩散受很多不确定性因素的影响，为了分析和评估影响毒气泄漏扩散的风速和泄漏速率的变化和不确定性，采用蒙特卡罗模拟和基于Wilks公式容许限的非参数统计法，通过抽样计算得到“95/95准则”下的毒气泄漏扩散地面浓度分布，计算了有毒气体泄漏扩散的不同风险等级的影响范围和风险概率曲线。以氨气泄漏事故为例进行实例分析，结果表明，相对于以确定性参数得出的氨气泄漏扩散浓度分布，引入参数的不确定性评估，更能贴合泄漏现场存在不确定性因素的实际情况，更有利于人员的安全和应急疏散管理。

Uncertainty analysis on parameters for risk of toxic gas leakage and diffusion

The leakage and diffusion of toxic gas can be affected by many kinds of uncertain factors. In order to analyze and evaluate the change and uncertainty in wind speed and leakage rate for leakage and diffusion of toxic gas, using the Monte Carlo simulation method and nonparametric statistical method based on Wilks formula tolerance limit, the ground concentration distribution in leakage and diffusion of toxic gas under "95/95 criteria" was obtained through sampling calculation. The influence scope and risk probability curve under different risk level were calculated, and a case analysis was carried out by taking ammonia leakage accident as example. The results showed that compared with the concentration distribution of ammonia leakage and diffusion obtained by certain parameters, introducing the uncertainty evaluation of parameters can better fit the actual situation that there exists uncertain factors in leakage field, and it is more beneficial to the personnel safety and emergency evacuation management.