事故灾难类重大突发事件情景构建概念模型

近期重特大事故灾难频发，表现出我国安全管理水平和应急处置能力依然不足。为引导地区或企业有序地开展应急准备工作，设计了事故灾难类重大突发事件情景构建概念模型，分析了概念模型中的“机会窗”和“准备效益”等重要理念，总结了概念模型在我国当前阶段的重要指导意义。最后，以某化工园区为真实背景，开展了生产安全事故情景构建的原型研究，证明了在事故灾难领域开展情景构建的实际价值。

Conceptual model on scenario construction for major accidents

Recently, major accidents occur frequently, which shows that the safety management level and emergency response capacity are still insufficient. In order to guide the local government or enterprises to carry out the emergency preparedness orderly, a conceptual model on scenario construction for major accidents was designed, and some important ideas such as the "window of opportunity" and "benefits of preparedness" were analyzed. The important guiding significance of this conceptual model in current period of China was summarized. Finally, taking a certain chemical industry park as actual background, the prototype research on scenario construction for work safety accidents was conducted, which proved the practical value of performing scenario construction in accident disaster field.