基于动态毒性负荷的人员疏散安全评估方法

毒气泄漏事故在高含硫气田及化工园区频繁发生，一旦发生事故，周边公众迅速进行疏散是应急的首要任务。我国很多地区制定了疏散方案,但是如何评估疏散的安全性和可行性,是亟待解决的问题。分析了我国泄漏事故特点和周边居民情况，对以往评估方法缺陷进行了剖析，提出基于动态毒性负荷分析的安全疏散评估方法。该方法在毒气扩散的精确3d模拟及疏散模拟的基础上，用差分法对人员行走过程中的毒性负荷Pc进行的计算，最终得出相应的致死概率Pr，并通过一个实例验证该方法的可行性。结果表明，运用该方法能够详尽、准确规划疏散区域、搬迁区域和避难区域。

Assessment method of personnel evacuation safety based on dynamic toxic load

The toxic gas leakage accidents have often occurred in the high-sulfur gas fields and chemical industrial parks in recent years. Once the accident occurs, the rapid evacuation of surrounding public is the primary task of emergency. Many areas have formulated the evacuation plans, but how to assess the safety and feasibility of evacuation is the problem which is urgent to be solved. The characteristic of toxic gas leakage accident and the situation of surrounding residents in China were analyzed, then the shortcomings of previous assessment methods, and an assessment method of evacuation safety based on dynamic toxic load analysis was put forward. Based on the accurate three-dimensional simulation of toxic gas diffusion and evacuation simulation, the difference method was applied to calculate the toxic load Pc along the way people walking on, and the corresponding death probability was obtained. The feasibility of the method was validated through a practical example. The results showed that the evacuation area, relocation area and sheltering area can be planned detailedly and accurately by using this method.