基于投影寻踪聚类的油气管道失效可能性评价

为保障油气管道运行安全，将投影寻踪聚类的方法引入油气管道失效可能性评价中，从系统理论的角度将油气管道失效分为致灾因子危险性、承灾体的脆弱性和应对能力脆弱性3个子系统，据此建立油气管道失效可能性评估指标体系，然后基于投影寻踪聚类的失效可能性评价模型，对油气管道失效可能性进行量化分析，从而确定其失效可能性等级。实例分析表明，所建立的失效可能性评价模型能对油气管道失效可能性进行评价，可为管道的风险管理提供决策依据。

Assessment on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline based on projection pursuit cluster

To ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipeline, the method of projection pursuit cluster was introduced into the assessment on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline. The failure of oil and gas pipeline was divided into three subsystems, including the danger of hazard factors, the vulnerability of hazard bearing body and the vulnerability of response capacity from the perspective of system theory. Accordingly, an assessment index system on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline was established, and the quantitative analysis on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline was carried out using the assessment model of failure probability based on projection pursuit cluster, thus the grade of failure probability could be determined. The example analysis showed that the established assessment model can assess the failure probability of oil and gas pipeline, and it can provide decision basis for risk management of pipeline.