化工企业事故决策者风险感知模拟预测研究

为研究化工园区突发事故情景下，企业决策者的风险感知变化情况，基于系统动 力学系统论、信息论、结构论、控制论、协同论等特点，探索风险感知变化的实际影响 因素体系，并结合vensim软件构建企业决策者的风险感知因果关系图和系统流图，定量 评判、预测、计算和修正各影响因素之间的逻辑关系，建立量化表达函数并模拟，以此 获得各状态变量间的变化情况。对比敏感度分析结果表明:风险感知、风险观念以及风 险行为决策影响因素的正负相关性各有不同，且相互影响。

Study on simulation and prediction of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker in chemical accident

To study and predict the change of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker under the situation of sudden accident in chemical industry park, the practical influence factor system for change of risk perception was explored based on the characteristics including system theory, information theory, structure theory, control theory and coordination theory of system dynamic, and the causality graph and system flow diagram of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker were constructed with vensim software. The logic relation among various influence factos were evaluated, predicted, calculated and corrected quantitatively, and the quantitative expression function was built and simulated, so as to obtain the change of various state variables. By comparing the analysis results of sensitivity, it showed that the influence factors including risk perception, risk perspective and risk behavior and decision have different positive and negative correlation, and they influence each other.