SFT下的云化故障概率分布变化趋势研究

为了扩展空间故障树SFT的应用性，特别是处理具有离散性、随机性和模糊性(不确定性)的实际运行中系统产生的故障数据，利用云模型重构系统故障概率分布变化趋势的计算方法。通过故障概率分布变化趋势可得到系统故障概率随某一因素变化情况。建立云化故障概率分布变化趋势方法的目的在于，对于可靠性数据普遍存在的不确定性可使用云模型进行表示；构建的故障概率分布函数是连续的，可进行函数求导以方便得到变化趋势。将云化故障概率分布变化趋势方法应用于经典实例，得到了一些定性和定量结果。论述了该方法在理论和实际应用上的价值。

Research on change trend of cloudization fault probability distribution in SFT

In order to expand the applicability of space fault tree (SFT), especially to process the fault data with discreteness, randomness and fuzziness (uncertainty), which are produced in the actual operation of system, the cloud model was used to reconstruct the calculation method on change trend of system failure probability distribution. Through the change trend of fault probability distribution, the changes of system failure probability with a certain factor can be obtained. The aim to establish a change trend method of cloudization failure probability distribution was that the ubiquitous uncertainty of reliability data can be represented using cloud model, the constructed failure probability distribution function is continuous, and the functional derivation can be conducted to obtain the change trend conveniently. The change trend method of cloudization failure probability distribution was applied in the classical case, and some qualitative and quantitative results were obtained. The theoretical and practical application value of the method were discussed.