基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析

为了全面分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油事故风险，在风险定量分析中引入了模糊Bow-tie模型，基于事故树方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业发生溢油事故的原因，采用事件树方法分析溢油事故可能导致的后果，利用模糊集理论与专家评价相结合的方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油的模糊可能值，采用层次分析法确定作业溢油后果因素的权重值，采用矩阵乘法计算溢油后果风险值。分析结果表明:油轮靠港装卸作业过程中一旦发生溢油，发生火灾+污染、爆炸+污染的概率较高。基于以上风险分析提出了油轮靠港装卸作业风险的防控措施，可为油轮靠港装卸作业安全风险管理提供参考。

Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model

In order to fully analyze the risk of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, the fuzzy Bow-tie model was introduced into the quantitative risk analysis. The method of fault tree analysis was applied to analyze the causes of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, while the method of event tree analysis was used to analyze the possible consequences. The fuzzy possibility value of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker was obtained by combining the fuzzy set theory with expert evaluation, then the weight values of oil spill consequence factors were determined by the method of analytic hierarchy process, and the risk value of oil spill consequences were calculated by the matrix multiplication. The results showed that there is a higher probability of both fire and pollution, and both explosion and pollution once the oil spill accident occurs. Based on the risk analysis, the prevention and control measures of risk in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker were put forward, which can provide reference for the risk management in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker.