职工群体性突发事件发生原因演化分析及对策研究

随着经济增速放缓及劳动力成本上升，职工要求增加工资与企业渴望廉价劳动力的矛盾愈发明显。劳资冲突、职工群体性突发事件不断发生，对维护社会稳定带来严峻考验。通过统计分析2011-2015年间我国职工群体性突发事件，得出拖欠工资、管理不善、企业改制或搬迁、诉求提高工资待遇及不满工作条件、环境五个因素为导致职工群体性突发事件发生的主要原因。引入马尔科夫理论，计算职工群体性突发事件诱发因素的马尔科夫演化过程，得到趋势因子。并以2015年下半年为初始数据，对2016-2018年上半年职工群体性突发事件的原因变化趋势进行预测。针对预测结果，对欠薪事件、政企管理制度不完善等因素提出对策措施，为科学预防职工群体性突发事件提供技术支持。

Study on reasons evolution analysis and countermeasures of workers mass emergency

With the economic growth slowdown and rising labor costs, the contradiction between increasing wages requirements of workers and aspiration for cheap labor of enterprises becomes increasingly apparent. The frequent occurrence of labor-capital conflict and workers mass emergency causes severe test to the maintenance of social stability. Through statistical analysis on workers mass emergency in China from 2011 to 2015, it showed that five factors are the main reasons of workers mass emergency, including arrears wages, poor management, enterprise restructuring or relocation, requirement of increasing wages and dissatisfying with the working condition, and environment. Markov theory was introduced to calculate the Markov evolution process of inducing factors for workers mass emergency, and the trend factors were obtained. Taking the second half of the year 2015 as initial data, the reasons evolution trend of workers mass emergency 2016 to the first half of the year 2018 was predicted. According to the predicting results, the countermeasures to arrears wages events and imperfect management regulations of government and enterprises were put forward, which can provide technical support for preventing the workers mass emergency scientifically.