全球变暖与中国旱涝灾害大势的初步研究

旱涝灾害受气候变化的制约，还深受人类活动的影响。本研究一方面用历史类比方法研究近５００年我国历史冷朝时期的旱涝分布特征，另一方面分析人类活动，特别是城市建设发展对旱涝灾害的影响。最后将两者叠加，勾划出全球变化和未来社会经济形势下我国旱涝灾害分布大势。结果显示：在未来稳定暖的时期，长江中下游、江南、华南及嘉陵江上游地区易涝，其中以东南沿海为甚；黄淮、华北、环渤海湾地区易旱，其中以黄淮为甚。

TRENDS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA

Disasters of flood and drought are affected by climatic change and human activity. In this research the distributions of flood and drought during the warm and cold periods alst 500 years has been studied by means of historical comparison. In addition,impact of human activity,specially urban development on flood disaster has been analyzed. The trends of flood and drought in China have been established under the coactive of global warming and economic development.The rcsults suggest that in the future period floods probably will increasc in many parts of China such as middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River and its southern area,south China and upper reaches of Jialing River.Among them southeast coastal area will bear the most possibillity while the drought probably increase in Huaihai plain,north China plain and along Buohai Bay area,among them Huaihai plain is the heaviest.