天津海岸带生态修复效果评估方法研究

将生态系统服务功能引入到生态修复效果评估方法研究中，构建了包括供给服务、调节服务、文化服务和支持服务等15个指标的海岸带生态修复效果评估指标体系；采用层次分析法确定了各个指标的权重值，并引入商业银行利率的概念构建生态修复效果评估模型；采用该指标体系和评估模型估算了1983年、2005年、2012年和2016年天津海岸带生态系统服务功能价值。结果表明:以1983年为基准年，2005年、2012年和2016年天津海岸带生态系统服务总价值分别下降了82.47%、89.78%和88.66%，呈衰退趋势；但休闲娱乐占总价值比重呈升高趋势，表明通过局部的生态修复，该功能得到较快的提高，基本能实现生态修复的文化目标；生态系统的生命支持服务功能难以恢复到历史水平。总体来看，近30 a来天津海岸带所开展的生态修复工程对整个海岸带生态系统服务功能的恢复并未取得良好成效，生态修复效果在短时期内难以弥补海岸带不断退化带来的损失。

Research on the method for evaluating ecological restortaion effect in the coastal zone of Tianjin

According to ecosystem service functions, an evaluation index system is established for evaluating the effects of coastal zone ecological restoration, which includes 15 indexes of four aspects of services such as supply service, regulation service, cultural service and support service.The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of each indexes and the concept of Commercial Bank interest rate is introduced to build up the evaluation model of ecological restoration effect.By using this index system and evaluation model, the values of the ecosystem service functions in the coastal zone of Tianjin in 1983, 2005, 2012 and 2016 are estimated.The results how that by taking 1983 as the base year, the total value of the ecosystem services in the coastal zone of Tianjin in 2005, 2012 and 2016 has fallen by 82.47%, 89.78% and 88.66%, respectively, tending to decline.However, the proportion of leisure and entertainment to the total value tends to increase, indicating that through the local ecological restoration this function is improved quickly and the cultural objectives of ecological restoration can be achieved basically.For the life support service function of the ecosystem, however, it is difficult to restore to the historical level.Generally speaking, the ecological restoration projects that have been carried out locally in the coastal zone of Tianjin in the past 30 years has not yet received a good effect on the restoration of ecosystem service functions in the whole coastal zone of Tianjin.It is difficult to make up the losses caused by the continuous degradation of the coastal zone through the ecological restoration in a short period.