The Effect of Nitrogen Enrichment on the Carbon Sink in Coniferous Forests: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Three Ecosystem Models

Estimates of the global carbon sink induced by nitrogen enrichment range vary widely, from nearly zero to 2.3 Gt C year^-1. It is necessary to reduce this uncertainty if we are to make accurate predictions of the future magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we present a Monte Carlo approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of three ecosystem models, Century,BGCand Hybrid. These models were applied to a coniferous forest ecosystem in Sweden. The best estimate of the change in total carbon content of the ecosystem with the cumulative change in nitrogen deposition over 100 years, C_total/N_deposition was 20.1 kg C (kg N)^-1 using the pooled mean, with a pooled standard deviation of 13.8 kg C (kg N)^-1. Variability in parameters accounted for 92% of the total uncertainty in C_total/N_deposition, and only 8% was attributable to differences between models. The most sensitive parameters were those which controlled the allocation of assimilate between leaves, roots and stem. In particular, an increase in allocation to fine roots led to a large reduction in C_total/N_deposition in all models, because the fine roots have a very high turnover rate, and extra carbon allocated there is soon lost through mortality and decomposition.