福建暴雨洪灾时空变化与区域划分的初步研究

根据福建省暴雨洪涝灾害数据库资料，重建了1971—2005年福建暴雨洪灾的时空格局，在此基础上，基于自然灾害系统理论，以县域为单元，根据综合性与主导因素相结合的原则，采用自下而上的方法对福建暴雨洪灾进行了区域划分。结果表明：福建洪涝灾害的年际变化呈波动上升趋势，与暴雨次数的年际变化并不一致；年内非台风暴雨洪涝灾害有71．2％集中在4—6月份，台风暴雨洪涝灾害有81.3％集中在7—9月份，群发性强；空间上东西分异明显，东部以台风暴雨洪灾为主，区内根据危险性差异划分为4个二级区；西部以非台风暴雨洪灾为主，区内依据危险性差异划分为3个二级区。分阶段研究表明，洪涝灾害的分布范围由沿海向内陆扩展，并与暴雨频次和持续时间呈不同步增长，反映了福建的洪涝灾害是主要致灾因子暴雨和承灾体共同作用的结果，承灾体的脆弱性加大了洪涝灾害灾情，福建暴雨洪涝灾害的时空格局和区域划分可为防灾减灾规划提供科学参考。

Primary study on spatiotemporal change and regionalization of storm-flood in Fujian Province

According to the database of storm-flood in Fujian Province, temporal and spatial change of it was reestablished for the years 1971-2005. Based on the change, according to the natural disaster system theory, in combination of comprehensive and dominant factors, regionalization of storm-flood in Fujian was worked out from bottom to up. The result indicates that inter-annual change of storm-flood fluctuates in the province, which is not consistent with that of frequency of storms. 71.2% of non-typhoon flood disaster within a year concentrated from April to June. 81.3% of typhoon flood disaster concentrated from July to September with clustering occurrence. There is a diversity of its distribution from east to west. The east is mostly distributed with typhoon storm flood, in which four second degree areas were divided out based on the hazard difference. The west is mostly distributed with non-typhoon storm flood, in which three second degree areas were divided out. Temporal research indicates that, flood expands from the coastal region to the inland, which does not increases in accordance with the frequency and duration of storms. Therefore, flood disaster is the result of interaction of storm hazard and hazard-affected body, and the increasing vulnerability of hazard-affected body magnifies exposure. The temporal and spatial pattern and regionalization of storm-flood in Fujian can be beneficial to disaster mitigation and reduction.