秦淮河流域城镇用地增长格局及其演化机制

利用四期遥感TM数据和GIS技术，通过分析20年秦淮河流域城镇用地增长格局及其演化机制，为流域综合管理和模拟提供重要参数，研究结果表明：①城镇用地增长显示阶段性和空间的不均匀性，增长拐点发生在1994年和2000年，空间上表现出增长“热极”与“热带”；②城镇用地增长阶段性是经济社会过程及驱动因子演化阶段的反映，回归分析显示城镇用地增长与城镇人口、经济总量及开发区发展相关系数高，这归于1992年开发区创建、投资增加与2000年撤县设区驱动的结果；③城镇用地增长格局变化是社会经济物质载体演化的体现，1992年后开发区成为城镇用地增长首要来源，2000年后东山新市区与大学城成为其增长核心和新形式，机场与高速公路网强化对城镇用地的空间导向。研究结果较客观地刻画了城市化格局与过程的演化规律，参数应用与数据精度的提高是今后研究的重点.

PATTERN IN THE GROWTH OF URBAN LAND USE WITH ANALYSIS OF ITS MECHANISMS

Based on four period TM remote sensing data and GIS spatial analysis methods, the paper described the pattern in urban land use growth with the analysis of its mechanism in Qinhuai River Basin over last 20 years. Spatial and temporal differences were found in urban land use growth: growth turning point occurred in the year 1994 and 2000 respectively; growth hot poles and hot belts were detected in the spatial difference; temporal differences were observed in urban land use growth as a consequence of economical and social development; a relativity coefficient was found high between urban land use growth ratio and urbanization, GDP, and Development Area. The above dynamics included the development area building, investment growth in 1992 and the administration replacement from county to district in 2000. Urban land use growth pattern evoluted from economical and social development carriers' changes, and the Development Area was the primary source of urban land use growth in 1992; Dong shan New Urban District and University City became spatial growth core and new spatial form; and airport and highway networks served as guidance for urban land use spatial pattern.