Computer simulation of barren-ground caribou dynamics

This paper describes a simulation model of a Canadian caribou population. The model was constructed by an interdisciplinary team of field biologists, managers, and systems ecologists. Population dynamics are represented in terms of age structure, with age-dependent survival and fecundity. Biomass dynamics of the major food species are also simulated, and the food dynamics interact with the caribou population through a foraging submodel that explicitly considers snow depth, seasonal migrations, and total area of useable winter habitat. The model was used to examine two hypotheses regarding the abundance of barren-ground caribou. It was shown that there is no reason to suspect that food supply currently limits the population size; instead, hunting pressure appears to be the critical variable. The implications of this finding for population management are discussed.