Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages |
| |
Authors: | Alexander Lorenz Matthias G. W. Schmidt Elmar Kriegler Hermann Held |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412, Potsdam, Germany 2. Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK 3. University of Hamburg & Klima Campus Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
|
| |
Abstract: | Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.” |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|