中国沿海风暴潮灾害的历史变化及未来趋向

中国是全球少数几个同时受台风风暴潮和温带风暴潮危害的国家之一，风暴潮灾一年四季，从面到北均可发生，本文基于中国沿海近５０年风暴潮灾时间变化和空间分布特点的分析，着重探讨了近５００年全国及长江、黄河、珠江三角洲的历史记录和近５０年实测风暴潮灾发生频次的变化及其与气候波动的关系，并对未来全球变化背景下，中国沿海风暴潮灾的变化趋向进行了讨论。结果表明：近５００年来，中国沿海的风暴潮灾的气温较高的偏暖时段

Historical change and future trends of storm surge disaster in China's coastal area

China is one of the countries which are harmed by storm surge both tropical and temperate cyclones, the disaster of storm surge can occure every seasons and from south to north in China's coastal area. Based on the analysis of the features of temporal and spatial changes of storm surge disaster in the recent 50 years, this paper focuses on the frequency changes of historical records in recent 500 years and measured data in recent 50 years of storm surge disaster and the relationships between storm frequency change and climate fluctuation. Meanwhile, the effects of future increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones landing or affect- ing China and relative sea level rise with global warming on storm surge disaster of China's coastal area also discussed. The results show that, in recent 500 years, there are direct relationships between storm frequency change and climate fluctuation, i.e., high global mean temperature correspond with high storm frequency and low mean temperature correspond with low storm frequency. Storm surge disaster in China's coastal area will be exacerbated with global warming.