中国工业园区低碳发展路径研究

中国政府承诺CO₂排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。在工业部门深化应对气候变化和全面推进绿色转型的背景下,数量庞大的工业园区已然成为"十四五"乃至今后一个时期工业领域实现科学、精准碳减排的关键靶点。本研究首先剖析了中国工业园区低碳发展面临的挑战与机遇;进而以2015年为基准年,面向2035和2050年美丽中国建设两阶段战略目标,研究提出了工业园区碳减排的目标、路径和潜力,以期为园区深化低碳发展提供决策参考。研究显示,2015年中国工业园区CO₂排放总量约为28亿吨,占全国总排放量的31%。通过产业结构调整、能效提升、能源结构优化、碳捕集等低碳路径,2015-2050年全国园区预期可减排CO₂ 18亿吨,在2015年基础上减排60%以上;其中,2015-2035年减排8亿吨,2035-2050年减排10亿吨。

Low-Carbon Development Pathways of Industrial Parks in China

Chinese government pledged to strive to peak carbon emission by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In the context of the industrial sector''s deepening response to climate change and the overall promotion of green transformation, industrial parks have become the critical trouble-shooters in achieving scientific and precise targeted carbon emission reductions in the industrial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and even in the future. This paper identified challenges and opportunities underlying the low-carbon transition of China''s industrial parks, and quantified decarbonization targets, pathways and potentials of the industrial parks towards 2035 and 2050. In 2015, CO₂ emissions from China''s industrial parks were estimated as about 2.8 gigaton, accounting for 31% of national CO 2 emission. During 2015-2050, China''s industrial parks were expected to reduce CO₂ emission by 1.8 gigaton (dropped by more than 60%) via industrial structure optimization, energy efficiency improvement, energy structure decarbonization, and carbon capture, utilization and storage; specifically, 0.8 and 1.0 gigaton of CO₂ emission could be reduced during 2015-2035 and 2035-2050, respectively.