京津冀地区钢铁行业协同减排成本-效益分析

京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业布局最集中的区域，也是大气污染治理的重点区域之一.分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污手段中长期减排的成本-效益，对于选择最经济有效的减排路径、加快推动该地区大气环境质量达标意义重大.基于能源环境、环境分布、人群健康效益评价等模块构建多模型耦合方法，以2015年为基准年，以每5 a为时间节点，设计了京津冀地区钢铁行业规模-结构、规模-技术、规模-末端治理、综合减排4种协同减排情景，计算各情景下2015—2030年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物(SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO₂)的减排成本与效益，比较获取治污减排的最优路径方案.结果表明:①基于减排成本计算，规模-末端治理减排情景成本最低，分别为规模-结构、规模-技术减排情景投入的15.18%、23.94%；综合减排情景下治污减排潜力最大，但综合成本最高.②基于环境税效益评价方法、人群健康效益评价方法计算显示，人群健康效益评价方法计算的减排效益高于环境税效益评价方法，表明污染减排的潜在人群健康效益更高；基于两种减排效益方法，4种协同减排情景中综合减排效益分别为10.78×108、76.14×108元，高于规模-结构、规模-技术、规模-末端治理减排情景效益.③基于环境税效益评价方法，4种协同减排情景的效益-成本比表现为规模-末端治理减排情景(0.46) >规模-技术减排情景(0.24) >综合减排情景(0.15) >规模-结构减排情景(0.10)；基于人群健康效益评价方法4种协同减排情景的效益-成本比依次为规模-末端治理减排情景(8.35) >综合减排情景(1.07) >规模-结构减排情景(0.57) >规模-技术减排情景(0.65)，表明规模-末端治理减排情景的减排路径最优.研究显示，京津冀地区钢铁行业应基于环境质量底线目标要求，综合考虑减排潜力、减排成本与收益，以规模-末端治理为主要途径，选取协同减排的最优路径. 

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Synergistic Emission Reduction in Steel Industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is the most concentrated area of China''s steel industry and one of the key areas for air pollution control. Analyzing the cost-benefit of medium- and long-term pollution control measures adopted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region''s steel industry is significant for selecting the most economical and effective emission reduction route and for improving the atmospheric environmental quality in this area. In this study, we built a comprehensive model including energy, environment and health assessment and designed four policy scenarios for cost-benefit analysis including scale-structure, scale-technology, scale-end, and comprehensive emission reduction. Then, we calculated the cost and benefits of the emission reductions of major pollutants (SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, CO₂) in the steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region under the four policy scenarios from 2015 to 2030, and obtained the optimal route plan for pollution control and emission reduction by comparing the results. The results show that: (1) The scale-end had the lowest cost, which was only 15.18% and 23.94% of the scale-structure and scale-technology, respectively; the comprehensive emission reduction had the greatest potential for pollution reduction but the highest comprehensive cost. (2) The benefits assessed by the population health benefits method were much higher than the results derived from the environmental tax method, indicating that pollution reduction had higher potential population health benefits. Through the two benefits evaluation methods, the benefits under the comprehensive emission reduction scenario were 10.78×10⁸ and 76.14×10⁸ RMB, respectively, which were higher than other scenarios. (3) Based on the calculation of cost-benefit ratio, the ranking of comprehensive benefits was: scale-end scenario (0.46) > scale-technology scenario (0.24) > comprehensive emission reduction scenario (0.15) > scale-structure scenario (0.10) through the environmental tax method, and scale-end scenario (8.35) > comprehensive emission reduction scenario (1.07) > scale-structure scenario (0.57) > scale-technology scenario (0.65) through the population health method, indicating the emission reduction path of the scale-end governance scenario was the best. According to above results, the steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region should comprehensively assess the potential, costs and benefits of emission reductions based on the targets of regional environmental quality, and give priority to scale-to-end management when selecting the optimal path for synergistic emission reduction.