中国二氧化硫污染治理分析:基于卫星观测数据和空间计量模型的实证

中国经济的快速增长伴随着严重的环境污染问题,已经成为阻碍中国实现可持续发展的桎梏.为了客观地反映中国的SO₂污染状况,本文利用中国2005-2017年的卫星观测SO₂柱浓度数据来表征SO₂污染状况.首先,采用探索性空间数据分析方法进行SO₂污染的时空演变分析;然后,基于环境库兹涅茨曲线框架纳入社会经济驱动因素及环境规制,采用空间计量模型探究SO₂污染是否越过拐点,并借此探索环境规制对于中国SO₂污染治理的重要意义.结果表明：1华北地区是中国SO₂污染最严重的区域,但污染状况逐年改善.从长期时间趋势来看,尽管空气污染在个别年份中有所加剧,但整体上呈现向好的趋势.从空间上来看,SO₂污染在空间上明显存在正向的空间自相关现象.2环境库兹涅茨曲线实证结果显示,尽管回归结果呈现显著的倒N型曲线,但无实根解,说明无实质性的经济意义.从另一方面来说,在研究环境库兹涅茨曲线时,除了统计学意义之外,经济意义更为重要.3空间计量模型回归结果显示,经济增长与SO₂污染在样本期内存在单调递减关系.换言之,中国已经越过了环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点.此外,严格的环境规制有利于降低SO₂浓度.地区技术水平的进步及先进外资的“光环效应”都可以有效地改善SO₂污染.然而,人口密度增加、第二产业发展、电力消耗及固定资产投资增加是造成SO₂污染加剧的重要因素.

Analysis of sulphur dioxide control in China: An empirical study based on satellite-observed data and spatial econometric models

China''s rapid economic growth has been accompanied by serious environmental pollution, which has become a hurdle to hinder the achievement of the goal of the sustainable development. To objectively describe the situation of SO₂ pollution in China, this study utilized satellite-based sulfur dioxide (SO₂) columns data during the period of 2005 to 2017 as an indicator to analyze the issue of SO₂ columns in China. In the first stage, we applied explanatory spatial data analysis methods to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of SO₂ columns in China. In the second stage, we considered an environmental regulation policy and employed spatial econometric models in the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) to verify if China passed the turning point of the EKC and examine if environmental regulation worked in addressing the issue of SO₂ pollution. The main findings are as follows. 1 The North China Plain was the most polluted area in China. However, SO₂ densities had been reduced year by year. In the long run, although SO₂ was aggravated in some specific years, basically it presented a decreasing trend, implying that the problem of SO₂ was improving. In geography, SO₂ pollution in China exhibited a significant spatial autocorrelation, implying spatial clustering. 2 From the results of the EKC models, the significant coefficients were in support of an inverted N-shaped curve, indicating that two turning points could be obtained. However, no real roots were found, implying no economic significance. It is worth noting that an EKC model should be determined not only by statistical significance, but also by economic significance when testing for the EKC hypothesis. 3 From the results of the spatial econometric models, we observed that the relationship between economic growth and SO₂ pollution in China presented a monotonically decreasing trend, implying that SO₂ pollution was gradually improved when the economy grew. In other words, China had passed the turning point due to a series of environmental protection policies implemented over the past years. Strict environmental regulation was regarded as an effective and efficient way to reduce SO₂ pollution. Moreover, advanced technologies and the "halo effect" of advanced foreign capital could effectively reduce SO₂ pollution. On the other hand, population density, the development of the secondary industry, electricity consumption and fixed investment contributed to SO₂ pollution in China.