水质模型科学性内涵的探讨

水质模型的科学性是其方法论上的重要问题，对数学模型科学性的理解将直接影响其在实际工作中的应用。本研究在国内外大量研究成果的基础上，从科学哲学的角度，对水质模型科学性的基本观点进行了总结和发展。研究认为，数学模型不是现实情况的简单复制，因此同时存在着机理性和经验性；数学模型的复杂程度应与能够获得的数据相对应，才能尽可能取得比较准确的预测结果；模型预测结果的不确定性不可避免；而模型的最终相似性为数学模型应用的合理性提供了一定的依据。对数学模型科学性的客观理解，将更好地指导水质模型在环境决策中的应用。

Discussion on the Scientificaless of Water Quality Models

The scientificalness is an important problem in the methodology of water quality models, and the reasonable understanding of the mathematical models will effect directly their practical application. Based on the existing research results, the basic ideas about the scientificaless of water quality models are summarized and developed from the point view of scientific philosophy. It is conclude that the mathematical model is not the replication of the real world, so there must exist the mechanisms and experiences at the same time; only when complexity of the model is consistent with the data available, the relatively accurate results can be given ; the uncertainty in the model predications is unavoidable; and the equifinality of the model provide some basis for the reasonability of the model＇s application. The objective understanding of the scientificaless of water quality models will help to better apply the water quality models in environmental decision - making.