幕景分析法在累积影响评价中的实例应用研究

探讨了幕景分析方法在累积影响评谷中的应用途径，并将基于水质模型的幕景分析方法应用于水库投饵网箱养鱼项目，评价了累积影响的重大性，提出了相应的累积影响消减措施，其影响分析和评价结论对今后投饵网箱养鱼的环境管理具有重要价值，对建设项目EIA中增加累积影响 评价的内容提出建议。

Application of Scenarios Analysis to Cumulative Impacts Assessment-Case Study

Cumulative impact assessment should be integrated into project environmental impact assessment (EIA) in order to strengthen the cumulative impact management of construction projects in accordance with sustainable development. The way of application of scenarios analysis to cumulative impact assessment have been discussed. As a case study, the cumulative impact of fish cage culture project in a reservoir were analyzed and predicted applying secnarios analysis and WQRRS model. The cumulative impacts were significant, therefore the measures were put forward to mitigate the cumulative impact. The results of cumulative impact assessment were more useful to environmental management of fish cage culture than that of single project EIA.