Coastal Flood Risk Analysis Using Landsat-7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A Case Study of Izmir, Turkey

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1-75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1).