Improving Plume Rise Prediction Accuracy for Stable Atmospheres with Complex Vertical Structure

Accurately predicting the rise of a buoyant exhaust plume is difficult when there are large vertical variations in atmospheric stability or wind velocity. Such conditions are particularly common near shoreline power plants. Simple plume rise formulas, which employ only a mean temperature gradient and a mean wind speed, cannot be expected to adequately treat an atmosphere whose lapse rate and wind velocity vary markedly with height. This paper tests the accuracy of a plume rise model which is capable of treating complex atmospheric structure because it integrates along the plume trajectory. The model consists of a set of ordinary differential equations, derived from the fluid equations of motion, with an entralnment parameterization to specify the mixing of ambient air into the plume. Comparing model predictions of final plume rise to field observations yields a root mean square difference of 24 m, which is 9 % of the average plume rise of 267 m. These predictions are more accurate than predictions given by three simpler models which utilize variants of a standard plume rise formula, the most accurate of the simpler models having a 12% error.