A New Approach to Setting Vehicle Emission Standards

Urban ambient air quality trend analysis was evaluated as an alternative to rollback analysis to estimate vehicle emission standards needed to achieve national ambient air quality standards. Examination of the trends of monthly maximum 8 hour average carbon monoxide concentrations, central business district traffic activity, and emission rates from vehicles on the road suggests that the automotive exhaust emission standard for carbon monoxide derived in response to the requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 may be ten times too severe. The excessive stringency of the vehicle emission standard for carbon monoxide was confirmed by two different analyses of the correlation between annual mean carbon monoxide concentration and frequency of occurrence of carbon monoxide concentrations above the level of the 8-hour standard. One correlation analysis using all available CAMP data involved an empirical approach and the other assumed that carbon monoxide concentrations are described by the lognormal distribution. Based on the analysis of CAMP air quality data, a vehicle carbon monoxide emission standard of approximately 29 grams per mile appears adequate to meet the ambient air quality standard. The large difference between the results of this analysis and the 1976 Federal vehicle carbon monoxide emission standard indicates the advisability of applying this methodology to verification of the standards for hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen.